Aktau declares a state of emergency – critically low level of Caspian

Aktau, Kazakhstan (PortSEurope) June 13, 2023 – The city officials in Kazakhstan’s Caspian Sea port of Aktau declared a state of emergency over the critically low level of the Caspian Sea. Kazakhstan’s Ecology Minister Zulfia Suleimenova described the crisis over the Caspian as "quite complex” and attributed the ongoing water level reduction in the Ural and Volga Rivers. The reason is lack of snowfall over the winter, increased water consumption and the retention of water for use at hydroelectric power stations in Russia. Suleimenova said that while other Caspian littoral states have also drawn attention to the issue of the sea’s shrinkage, effective measures are lacking. The retreat of the Caspian Sea from Kazakhstan’s coast (where it’s shallowest) began in 2005. Since then, the level has dropped by 1.5 m. The background Kazakhstan’s media reported in January that in the past few years, ships calling at its ports of Aktau and Kuryk in the north of the Caspian Sea had to reduce their cargo load significantly. Otherwise, there is a risk that they will run aground. The ports of Aktau and Atyrau are part of the the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR, Middle Corridor), whose importance in terms of international cargo transportation has increased after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent Western sanctions against Moscow. The countries from the Middle Corridor have been holding numerous discussions at different levels on the issue of increasing the volume of cargo transportation. Especially active are Russia and Iran – the two most sanctioned countries in the world. However, the water level in the Caspian Sea continues to decline, which may create serious obstacles to cargo transportation in the near future. According to Kazakhstan’s media, partially-loaded dry cargo ships and tankers are already calling the country’s ports. The rapid shallowing of the Caspian Sea not only endangers shipping, but also harms the marine ecosystem. At the moment, Aktau Port is the second largest transport hub on the Caspian Sea, located at the junction of such international transport corridors as TRACECA, the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Trans-Caspian Corridor. The latter passes through China, Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia and further leads to Turkey and European countries. In addition to Aktau, Kuryk port operates in the region with railway and automobile moorings, simultaneously serving four ferries. Oil products, chemical products, metals, consumer goods and much more are transported through Kuryk. Imports are food, industrial equipment, building materials and other goods. Transit through the port is various equipment, electronics, textiles, chemical products and metal products. When did the problem start? According to the chairman of the Association of Maritime Transport Entrepreneurs Kuanysh Esetov, “the problems associated with the drop in the water level in the Caspian Sea, especially in its northern part, began for the shipping companies back in 2006”. Esetov said: “The organizations that were involved in the construction of an artificial island and ice barriers as part of the Kashagan project were the first to feel this. Then, during the delivery of building materials, the barges could not reach the unloading area due to the low water levels. These were the first signs that the Caspian Sea could be experiencing lower water levels. Additionally, in the northern part of the sea in the Atyrau region, there is a so-called “saddle” at the bottom, like a hill. And already in those years, ships could not pass through this place. It was then that conversations began about addressing the issue. But then the construction of the artificial island and ice barriers at Kashagan was completed, and everyone calmed down. The problem resurfaced in 2015, when it became clear that the shallowing of the Caspian Sea was proceeding at a faster pace than might have been expected. If earlier the water level fell by 5-9 cm per year, now it reduces by 20 cm per year! In addition, there are no competent scientific organizations in the Caspian countries that could predict the further development of events. The problem for the shipping companies is what to do with the existing fleet, which may soon be unsuitable for work in low water conditions. “In those years, a number of shipping companies carried out dredging works in especially shallow areas of the sea. But this is not a way out of the situation, because the ships have to go only through these channels, which, moreover, need to be regularly dredged. The question arises of replacing existing ships with new ones that would sail with a draft of up to 1.5 meters,” Esetov adds. Reduced cargo loads The fact that the current level of the Caspian negatively affects shipping is confirmed by statistics. According to the seaport of Aktau, oil tankers with a carrying capacity of 12,000 tonnes, today are able to take on board a maximum of 9,000 tonnes. The situation is similar with dry cargo ships. If earlier a container ship could take on board 350 20-foot containers, now it can carry a maximum of 280 containers. Given that heavy cargoes are mainly transported, each drop in sea level by 10 cm is an underload for a 5,000 tonnes ship by 200-300 tonnes, and for a 3,000 tonnes ship – by 100-150 tonnes. Kazakhstan’s ports in the Caspian need serious dredging. This year it is planned to develop a feasibility study, and then a cost estimate. The dredging work will be carried out no earlier than 2025. The science behind Caspian shrinking The Caspian Sea started shrinking in the mid-1990s and its level is projected to fall by 9 to 18 metres until the year 2100, according to a study, published in December 2020 in Communications Earth & Environment journal. If scientific projections are correct, if global warming continues or worsens and rivers’ inflow in Caspian continues to decrease, the sea’s surface area will shrink between 23%, with a 9-meter reduction, and by 34% for an 18-meter drop in water level. The Caspian Sea started shrinking in the 1960s, but the problem ended abruptly in 1978, when its water started rising unexpectedly and without a scientific explanation for the phenomenon. This welcome development continued until the mid-1990s when the sea started losing water again. In comparison to other ancient lakes, the Caspian Sea surface temperature has suffered from the fastest rise on record. Ports’ problems A loss of a third of the Caspian Sea surface will deliver a fatal blow to the 12 ports located there and trigger a financial tsunami to the economies of the region. The worst affected will be Aktau and Kuryk as well as the Russian ports of Astrakhan, Makhachkala and Olya as well as the project for a new port in Lagan. More here about the ambitious Iranian project expected to be financed by China. The Caspian’s largest and most successful port, Baku in Azerbaijan, will also be heavily affected, as well as the country’s second port of Alat. The new Turkmenbashi (Turkmanbashi) port in Turkmenistan, a $1.5 billion (€1.32 billion) over-ambitious project for a poor and isolated state, will have difficulty continuing to operate (more about its problems here). Amirabad, Anzali and Nowshahr in Iran, are expected to face problems and would also require huge investments to be able to continue normal operations. According to scientific projections, the vast northern Caspian shelf, the Turkmen shelf in the southeast, and all coastal areas in the middle and southern Caspian Sea are expected to emerge from under the sea surface. In addition, the Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay on the eastern shore will completely dry up. Some experts caution that the Caspian Sea level could stabilise or even start rising again unexpectedly as it happens over 40 years ago. This creates a serious dilemma for the financing of ports and related multimodal land and sea transport infrastructure – whether to invest now or wait for better projections. It is also an issue for shipowners – to buy new vessels or to wait. Caspian Sea The Caspian Sea is the largest (371,000 to 384,400 km²) and most voluminous (78,000 to 78,700 km³) inland body of water in the world. Its physical environment and its floor have oceanic characteristics. The sea lies in an elongated depression between the European and Asian continental plates. Its surface is well below sea level, with a maximum depth of 980 m in the south and a shallow northern half averaging just 5.2 metres. The sea extends more than 1,000 km from north to south, and is bounded by deserts in the north and east, and by grasslands and forests in the west and south. The surface of the world’s largest (salty) lake lying between Europe and Asia has fallen by several centimetres a year since the 1990s, with the rate of water shrinkage set to increase dramatically as global temperatures continue to increase. The Caspian’s low salinity is due to freshwater input. The Volga River contributes up to 82% of the inflow, with the rest supplied by some 130 other rivers, principally the Ural, Kura and Atrek. Littoral states believe that the Caspian Sea has huge potential for them to develop a transshipment role in China’s new Silk Road (Belt and Road Initiative - BRI), an economic strategy to seek better access for Chinese-made products in European markets. The sea occupies a key location facilitating water transport in both North-South and East-West directions. Developing international rail transport also attracts more distant countries, such as India, to use the Caspian Sea as a route to states in Europe and Russia. The withdrawal of Caspian water from the coasts where the ports are located will turn them into stranded assets. This issue is valid for all Caspian Sea littoral states and their ports. More PortSEurope news about the Caspian Sea More PortSEurope news about transport corridors Copyright (C) PortSEurope. All Rights Reserved. 2023.

Aktau declares a state of emergency – critically low level of Caspian

All news

New logistic hubs along Kazakhstan’s borders

Ukraine’s missiles attack Azov Sea port of Taganrog

Syria’s navy in Al-Bayda and Latakia ports destroyed

FESCO to start Novorossiysk-Kenya container service

GreenTech conference in Gothenburg, Sweden in April 2025

Our Expert Analysis

Latest Free Reads

Top Ports

Aktau declares a state of emergency – critically low level of Caspian

Share this news:

All news

New logistic hubs along Kazakhstan’s borders

Ukraine’s missiles attack Azov Sea port of Taganrog

Syria’s navy in Al-Bayda and Latakia ports destroyed

FESCO to start Novorossiysk-Kenya container service

GreenTech conference in Gothenburg, Sweden in April 2025

Our Expert Analysis

Latest Free Reads

Top Ports