EU awakens to the potential of Trans-Caspian International Transport Route

Astana, Kazakhstan (PortSEurope) October 31, 2022 - Amidst sanctions on Russia, the European Union is awakening to the potential of Trans-Caspian International Transport Route. Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and the President of the European Council Charles Michel have discussed the opportunities offered by the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR, Middle Corridor) and options for its further development, as well as the role of other transport links in the region. Among the many geopolitical consequences of Russia’s war against Ukraine has been the boost in regional integration along the TITR. This is a fast-developing land and sea freight route between China and Europe. It aims to become a viable alternative to the long-established northern route through the western sanctions-hit Russia. Development is likely to continue receiving increased support from the EU and the U.S., engagement from Turkey and, eventually, meet reluctant acceptance by Russia, China and Iran, according to an analyses Central Asia’s Middle Corridor gains traction at Russia’s expense for the Geopolitical Intelligence Services (GIS) by James Carafano, national security and foreign policy expert. TITR starts from south-east Asia and China, and runs through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey. There are onward connections to Southern and Central Europe. This is the shortest route between Western China and Europe. “Central Asia and Europe are coming closer together and becoming more and more connected,” Michel said. “Kazakhstan is a crucial partner for the EU. Kazakhstan is an important player on the international stage and in the region. We wish to develop our cooperation based on our shared strategic interests. Today, the EU is Kazakhstan's first trading partner and first foreign investor. Kazakhstan is the EU's biggest trading partner in Central Asia”. He added: “You are also a regional transport connectivity hub between East and West; and you are working to diversify connections even further. So the EU is looking forward to the EU-Central Asia Sustainable Connectivity Conference in Samarkand in November. At this conference, we will discuss how to increase the capacity of the Middle Corridor; and we will also present two Global Gateway initiatives, on water, energy and climate change and on digital connectivity”. Given the current geopolitical situation, the two presidents noted the importance of expanding existing new international transport corridors between Europe and Central Asia to facilitate global production and supply chains. Avoiding Russia Freight routes across Russia have for decades served as the main overland link between Europe and China. However, it has become problematic as Beijing and other countries try to shield their economies from the snags caused by international sanctions on Moscow (for its invasion in Ukraine). The most likely scenario is that TITR will continue to develop as an economic region with increasing interest and support from the U.S. and the EU. They see the potential for increasing the resilience of supply chains and energy supplies. In addition, both will seek strategic benefits in a more stable and prosperous region, buffering global competition with China, Iran and Russia. Since these three powers are overstretched strategically, and the corridor is unlikely to be used to isolate or contain any of them. They will most probably opt for cooperation and acceptance rather than competition, According to Geopolitical Intelligence Services (GIS) analysis. There is every expectation that Russia, China and Iran will continue to apply soft power and “gray zone” tactics to influence the political alignment of the region to their advantage. Kazakhstan, for instance, will likely remain highly susceptible to Russian pressure, and Moscow will continue to use its partnership with Armenia to sway Azerbaijani policy. What countries are planning Kazakhstan and Georgia are among the wild cards. Another is global inflation and recession, which could significantly diminish the need for the Middle Corridor as a logistics route. Another potential factor is the Three Seas Initiative in Central Europe, a public-private infrastructure development body that looks to extend beyond EU-member states. It could bridge projects across the Caspian Sea if it manages to grow to a “Four Seas” initiative. Japan has tested the Middle Corridor’s freight potential by shipping goods to ports in China, transporting them by rail across Central Asia to Azerbaijan and shipping them over the Caspian Sea to Europe. The U.S. is considering a regional hub with its International Development Finance Corporation in Tbilisi, Georgia. Aside from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan appears the most forward-leaning country in Central Asia, seeing the Middle Corridor as a strategic advantage and an opportunity to expand its role in energy, logistics and manufacturing. Azerbaijan also sees the corridor’s strategic importance and prioritizes regional integration. Turkey has been a significant investor and supporter of regional efforts. It revitalised the Turkic Council, which includes Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey and Uzbekistan. With the EU taking a positive interest in TITR, its potential increases and adds to Russia's problems in developing trade on its own terms. More PortSEurope news about the Caspian Sea and the Middle Corridor Copyright (C) PortSEurope. All Rights Reserved. 2022.

EU awakens to the potential of Trans-Caspian International Transport Route

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EU awakens to the potential of Trans-Caspian International Transport Route

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