Tartus, Syria (Ports Europe) December 10, 2024 – Unconfirmed reports claim that Israel bombed the coastal facilities of Russia’s naval base in Tartus earlier today, the only Mediterranean naval footprint of Moscow. It’s also reported that Moscow was informed in advance about the attack and moved ships and personnel to the open sea. Syria’s naval base in Latakia port was also reportedly hit with missiles by Israel.
Open-source intelligence analysts suggested that the frigate Admiral Gorshkov and the auxiliary vessel Yelnya had likely heading home from the Mediterranean Sea. Russian military bloggers also reported the withdrawal of Russian ships from Tartus and of aircraft from Moscow’s Khmeimim base, both in Syria’s Latakia province which is now under the full control of Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
Israel has carried out more than 300 airstrikes across the country since Islamist rebels overthrew Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad’s regime over the weekend. The aim is to prevent military equipment, supplies and facilities from falling into the hands of HTS and other Islamist groups. Latakia was used in the past for the transport of Iranian weapons and munitions to Syria and Lebanon.
Musical chairs for Russia’s Tartus naval base in Syria
For over half a century, Tartus hosted Russia’s naval supply and maintenance base and enabled the Kremlin to project power on the southern flank of NATO and in Africa. It seems that since the collapse of al-Assad regime, Moscow’s military presence at Tartus is evaporating.
While Russia is negotiating with the Islamist HTS for the preservation of its only base in the Mediterranean Sea, it is time for the U.S., NATO or the European Union to look into the opportunity to take over the strategic port and the naval base?
Russia will try to “buy” its Tartus naval base from Islamists
Turkey would also be very keen to have a port and a naval base in Tartus. And we should not forget China, which can easily afford to invest hundreds of millions in a port like Tartus, regardless of the chaos in Syria. So, the question is who will move first and secure long-term use of the port.
Symptomatic is the fact that the Iranian embassy in Damascus was ransacked during the weekend while the Russian one was not. The Kremlin had probably already offered the Islamists HTS money and, more importantly, oil, grain and weapons in an attempt to preserve its naval and military (airport) bases in Syria. Tartus is the Russian navy’s only repair and replenishment point in the Mediterranean.
Russian media is reporting that the Tartus navy facility operates as usual and that the Kremlin was assured by the Islamists insurgents that the base will not be invaded. For Russia, providing HTS with oil and grain costs almost nothing. At the same time, Iran diverted on December 8 its tanker ships heading towards Syria saying it’s not going to deliver petrol to the insurgents.
Russia and Iran are leaving Syria
During the weekend, Iran and Russia were evacuating military personnel, embassy staff and citizens from Syria, also using the ports of Latakia and Tartus, as the two most sanctioned countries in the world were unable to help keep Bashar al-Assad in power.
Background
In the Syrian civil war, Russia sided with and saved the regime in Damascus, and the Tartus port was the benefit of this strategy. Currently, Russia is bogged down in Ukraine. Iran, Damascus’ other ally, lost the capabilities of its proxies – Islamists Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Hizballah (Hezbollah) in Lebanon due to Israel’s onslaught.
Russia withdrew most of its soldiers and equipment from Syria and redeployed them to Ukraine, where its invasion army suffered heavy losses. Damascus government of Bashar al-Assad was caught off guard by the swift rebel operation.
Interestingly, Sunni’s HTS (Levant Liberation Committee’) is considered a “terrorist” organisation by everybody – Syria, the United States, the United Nations, the European Union, Turkey and Russia. HTS is a jihadist alliance that has controlled Idlib province in northwestern Syria since 2017, formed by the merger of several Islamist groups, including the al-Qaeda affiliate Nusra.
The war in Ukraine may cost the Russian navy the Mediterranean Sea and easy access to world oceans. The Soviet Union, and later Russia, maintained a presence at Tartus since the 1970s. Losing Tartus would be catastrophic for Russian power projection in Southern Europe and North Africa.
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